{
  "schemaVersion": 1,
  "generatedAt": "2026-09-03T20:57:25.415Z",
  "state": "PROSPECTIVE_ENTRY_TRIAL_WARMING",
  "trial": {
    "trialId": "LIVE_CATALYST_AVOID_RICH_V1",
    "schemaVersion": 1,
    "declaredAt": "2026-08-20T14:53:15.000Z",
    "horizonHours": 168,
    "discoveryClass": "POST_HOC_DISCOVERY_REQUIRES_PROSPECTIVE_CONFIRMATION",
    "treatmentDefinition": "liveCatalystRadarScore >= 60 AND 0 < richTokenScore < 60",
    "controlDefinition": "0 < liveCatalystRadarScore < 60 AND 0 < richTokenScore < 60",
    "rationale": "Combine a time-local catalyst signal with the independently verified Rich Token avoidance boundary.",
    "thresholds": {
      "liveCatalystRadarScore": 60,
      "richTokenAvoidanceCeiling": 60
    },
    "verificationPolicy": {
      "minimumResolvedTreatments": 30,
      "minimumResolvedControls": 45,
      "minimumTreatmentProjects": 20,
      "minimumControlProjects": 30,
      "minimumCohorts": 5,
      "minimumCaptureSpanDays": 14,
      "minimumMeanNetReturnPct": 3,
      "minimumMatchedEffectPct": 5,
      "minimumPositiveCohortRatio": 0.8,
      "minimumBootstrapProbabilityPositive": 0.975
    }
  },
  "historicalDiscovery": {
    "state": "POST_HOC_DISCOVERY_ONLY",
    "treatments": 0,
    "treatmentProjects": 0,
    "controls": 0,
    "controlProjects": 0,
    "treatmentMeanGrossReturnPct": null,
    "controlMeanGrossReturnPct": null,
    "unmatchedEffectPct": null,
    "mayVerifyEntryEdge": false
  },
  "prospectiveSignalCohort": {
    "resolvedTreatments": 0,
    "resolvedControls": 0,
    "treatmentProjects": 0,
    "controlProjects": 0,
    "treatmentMeanNetReturnPct": null,
    "controlMeanNetReturnPct": null,
    "matchedEffectPct": null,
    "treatmentPositiveRatePct": null,
    "episodes": 1428,
    "resolvedEpisodeRows": 0,
    "note": "Signal-only observations diagnose the rule but cannot verify an executable edge."
  },
  "prospectiveExecutableCohort": {
    "state": "PROSPECTIVE_ENTRY_TRIAL_WARMING",
    "blockers": [
      "NEED_MORE_RESOLVED_TREATMENTS",
      "NEED_MORE_RESOLVED_CONTROLS",
      "NEED_MORE_TREATMENT_PROJECTS",
      "NEED_MORE_CONTROL_PROJECTS",
      "NEED_MORE_PROSPECTIVE_COHORTS",
      "NEED_LONGER_CAPTURE_SPAN",
      "MEAN_NET_RETURN_NOT_POSITIVE_ENOUGH",
      "MATCHED_EFFECT_BELOW_MINIMUM",
      "EFFECT_NOT_REPLICATED_ACROSS_COHORTS",
      "PROJECT_CLUSTERED_CONFIDENCE_NOT_POSITIVE"
    ],
    "resolvedTreatments": 0,
    "resolvedControls": 0,
    "treatmentProjects": 0,
    "controlProjects": 0,
    "treatmentMeanNetReturnPct": null,
    "controlMeanNetReturnPct": null,
    "matchedEffectPct": null,
    "treatmentPositiveRatePct": null,
    "bootstrap95": {
      "clusters": 0,
      "lower95Pct": null,
      "upper95Pct": null,
      "probabilityPositive": null
    },
    "cohorts": [],
    "positiveCohortRatio": 0,
    "captureSpanDays": 0,
    "verificationPolicy": {
      "minimumResolvedTreatments": 30,
      "minimumResolvedControls": 45,
      "minimumTreatmentProjects": 20,
      "minimumControlProjects": 30,
      "minimumCohorts": 5,
      "minimumCaptureSpanDays": 14,
      "minimumMeanNetReturnPct": 3,
      "minimumMatchedEffectPct": 5,
      "minimumPositiveCohortRatio": 0.8,
      "minimumBootstrapProbabilityPositive": 0.975
    }
  },
  "outcomePolicy": "Only exact provider observations at 168h are accepted. Missing outcomes remain UNKNOWN.",
  "costPolicy": "Every simulated round trip deducts at least 2%.",
  "discoveryContaminationPrevented": true,
  "picksForced": false,
  "scoringInfluence": false,
  "rankingInfluence": false,
  "automaticTrading": false,
  "automaticProductionPromotion": false,
  "policy": "Historical evidence only nominated the rule. Only post-declaration, frozen, matched, exact-outcome, execution-eligible cohorts can verify an entry edge."
}